A forecast model shows one way thunderstorms could develop by Friday morning.
CNN —
Dangerous storms are set to unload tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail over the central United States on a daily basis through the weekend. Some locations are facing down a severe thunderstorm threat spanning two or three consecutive days.
Dallas; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; and Omaha, Nebraska, are just a few cities that could be hit by multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms through Sunday.
It’s a classic springtime setup for severe weather. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing into the central US as heat builds in the region, priming the atmosphere for robust storms.
Here’s where to expect these hazardous storms each day:
Thursday: Central and Southern Plains
Thursday marks the start of the multi-day severe threat. A few feisty thunderstorms dotted parts of eastern Kansas and Arkansas Thursday morning, ahead of a more organized threat in the afternoon.
Severe thunderstorms should fire up in the late afternoon in parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, expanding in scope and strength as they track east through the evening and overnight.
Storms in parts of Texas and Oklahoma are expected to come to life in the evening and charge east overnight.
Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes are possible in any storm, but a few parts of the region could see more extreme hazards.
Hail the size of golf balls to baseballs and strong tornadoes – at least EF2-strength – are possible in western Kansas. Large hail, wind gusts to 70 mph and tornadoes are possible within storms in Oklahoma and Texas. A Level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for these two areas, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Heavy, flooding rainfall is possible Thursday, even in areas not at risk of severe thunderstorms. A Level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas.
Rainfall rates of more than 2 inches per hour are possible across the heaviest storms.
Friday: Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest
Some of Thursday night’s severe storms are forecast to persist into Friday morning in parts of Texas and Oklahoma and push into Missouri and Arkansas. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats with these lingering storms, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
The next round of severe thunderstorms will fire up in the mid-to-late afternoon in eastern Nebraska and Kansas and track east into Iowa and Missouri through the evening. A Level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for these states Friday.
Damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of baseballs and strong tornadoes are possible within storms.
Additional severe thunderstorms could rumble to life in parts of Oklahoma and Texas in the late afternoon or evening and push into Arkansas Friday night.
Damaging winds and large hail are possible. Tornadoes are possible as well but with lower risk for strong tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall with rates up to 2 inches per hour could cause flooding in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.
Saturday: Potential to be the most dangerous day
Saturday could be the most dangerous day of the four if certain atmospheric conditions align. The potential strength of storms hinges on how Friday night’s storms evolve and linger into Saturday morning.
If storms hang around in the morning hours, the atmosphere will not be able to fully recharge to unload widespread, dangerous storms. Damaging storms are still likely in this scenario, they could just fail to reach their peak potential strength.
But if storms quickly clear out Saturday morning, there won’t be much of a limit on how strong storms could become.
The most significant storms are possible starting in the afternoon in parts of the southern and central Plains, where a Level 3 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place. Widespread damaging wind gusts, hail up to the size of baseballs and strong tornadoes are the storms’ main hazards.
The tornado threat may ramp up considerably through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Damaging storms are possible outside of the greatest risk area in a huge area of the country from the Great Lakes to southern Texas.
A “significant rainfall event” could unfold Saturday, the Weather Prediction Center warned. Some locations could record close to 5 inches of rain in a short period and dangerous flash flooding could result.
A Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall is in place for a large portion of Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa. Intense rainfall could force streams to overflow their banks and flood roadways.
Sunday: Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest
Damaging storms are possible from Texas to Wisconsin Sunday. But the exact timing, extent and strength of these storms will depend heavily on how Saturday night’s storms behave.
If the atmosphere is able to recharge following morning storminess, new severe thunderstorms will start to bubble up in the afternoon.
The storms could unload damaging wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado or two is also possible.
Heavy, flooding rainfall is possible, especially in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
By Monday, severe weather is forecast to become much more isolated. Any developing storms may be confined to the Gulf Coast.
CNN Meteorologist Robert Shackelford contributed to this report.
